West Antarctic Ice (open for swimming)

Yesterday I attended the panel discussion and lecture by the scientists below (see statement) at the University of Texas.  I did not realize that the ONLY remaining glacier fed system that whose bed (under the ice) is below sea level is the Amundsen Sea Embayment.  Hudson Bay was one during the last ice age in Canada, but it is gone now.  There is much uncertainty in the models that are used to predict what will happen at the edge of the glacier as it recedes landward, into an area that is below sea level.  Potentially, over hundreds if not thousands of years, the area under discussion, about the size of Texas, could raise sea levels worldwide about 3 meters if all the ice were to melt.  The data shows that the Antarctic Peninsula has been getting warmer but that much of Antarctica is largely unaffected by this change.  Only 0.4% of the land mass of Antarctica is NOT covered by ice.

I purchased two CDs for the Quark Expedition crew.  One was by Dr. David Vaughn of the British Antarctic Survey discussing this subject, called MELTING ANTARCTIC ICE: HOT AIR OR CHILLING REALITY.  The other was by Dr. Stephen R. Palumbi on THE HISTORY AND FUTURE OF WHALES.

http://www.jsg.utexas.edu/walse/statement.html

Statement: Thinning of West Antarctic Ice Sheet Demands Improved Monitoring
to Reduce Uncertainty over Potential Sea-Level Rise

March 28, 2007

AUSTIN, Texas—Polar ice experts from Europe and the United States, meeting to
pursue greater scientific consensus over the fate of the world’s largest fresh
water reservoir, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, conclude their three-day meeting
at The University of Texas at Austin’s Jackson School of Geosciences with the
following statement:

Surprisingly rapid changes are occurring in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, a
Texas-size region of the Antarctic Ice Sheet facing the southern Pacific Ocean.
Experts across a wide range of scientific disciplines from the United States and
United Kingdom met in Austin, Texas, to identify barriers to improved
predictions of future sea-level rise resulting from these changes.

The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported in
February that the scientific community could not provide a best estimate or an
upper limit on the rate of sea-level rise in coming centuries because of a lack
of understanding of the flow of the large ice sheets.

All of the ice on Earth contains enough water to raise sea level over 200 feet,
with about 20 feet from Greenland and almost all of the rest from Antarctica.
Although complete loss of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is not expected, even a small
change would matter to coastal populations.

Background:

The two-mile thick pile of ice and snow that is the Antarctic Ice Sheet spreads
under its own weight, flowing down to the sea where the ice begins to float as
ice shelves, with icebergs breaking off from the edges of the ice shelves. The
ice shelves often run aground on islands, providing friction that slows the flow
of the ice behind.

The consensus view of the workshop:

  • Satellite observations show that both the grounded ice sheet and the
    floating ice shelves of the Amundsen Sea Embayment have thinned over the
    last decades.
  • Ongoing thinning in the grounded ice sheet is already contributing to
    sea-level rise.
  • The thinning of the ice has occurred because melting beneath the ice
    shelves has increased, reducing the friction holding back the grounded ice
    sheet and causing faster flow.
  • Oceanic changes have caused the increased ice-shelf melting. The
    observed average warming of the global ocean has not yet notably affected
    the waters reaching the base of the ice shelves. However, recent changes in
    winds around Antarctica caused by human influence and/or natural variability
    may be changing ocean currents, moving warmer waters under the ice shelves.
  • Our understanding of ice-sheet flow suggests the possibility that too
    much melting beneath ice shelves will lead to “runaway” thinning of the
    grounded ice sheet. Current understanding is too limited to know whether,
    when, or how rapidly this might happen, but discussions at the meeting
    included the possibility of several feet of sea-level rise over a few
    centuries from changes in this region.
  • The experts agreed that to reduce the very large uncertainties
    concerning the behavior of the Antarctic ice in the Amundsen Sea Embayment
    will require new satellite, ground, and ship-based observations coupled to
    improved models of the ice-ocean-atmosphere system. Issues include:

    • The recent changes were discovered by satellite observations; however,
      continued monitoring of some of these changes is not possible because of a
      loss of capability in current and funded satellite missions.
    • The remoteness of this part of Antarctica from existing stations
      continues to limit the availability of ground observations essential to
      predicting the future of the ice sheet.
    • No oceanographic observations exist beneath the ice shelves, and other
      oceanographic sampling is too infrequent and sparse to constrain critical
      processes.
    • Current continental-scale ice sheet models are inadequate for predicting
      future sea level rise because they omit important physical processes.
    • Current global climate models do not provide information essential for
      predicting ice sheet and oceanic changes in the Amundsen Sea Embayment; for
      example, ice shelves are not included.

Resolving these issues will substantially improve our ability to predict the
future sea level contribution from the Amundsen Sea Embayment of the Antarctic
Ice Sheet.

Signed

Richard Alley, Pennsylvania State University
Sridhar Anandakrishnan, Pennsylvania State University
John Anderson, Rice University
Robert Arthern, British Antarctic Survey
Robert Bindschadler, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
Donald Blankenship, University of Texas Institute for Geophysics
David Bromwich, The Ohio State University
Ginny Catania, University of Texas Institute for Geophysics
Beata Csatho, University at Buffalo, the State University of New York
Ian Dalziel, University of Texas Institute for Geophysics
Theresa Diehl, University of Texas Institute for Geophysics
Fausto Ferraccioli, British Antarctic Survey
John Holt, University of Texas Institute for Geophysics
Erik Ivins, Jet Propulsion Laboratory
Charles Jackson, University of Texas Institute for Geophysics
Adrian Jenkins, British Antarctic Survey
Ian Joughin, University of Washington
Robert Larter, British Antarctic Survey
Alejandro Orsi, Texas A&M University
Byron Parizek, The College of New Jersey
Tony Payne, University of Bristol
Jeff Ridley, Hadley Center for Climate Prediction, Met Office
John Stone, University of Washington
David Vaughan, British Antarctic Survey
Duncan Young, University of Texas at Austin

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